Tennessee vs. Mississippi

Tennessee vs. Mississippi 2025 State Prediction, Odds, Picks 9 November

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On Saturday, November 9, 2025, the No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in an SEC showdown at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee. With a 7-1 record, Tennessee is heavily favored by 25.5 points against the struggling 2-7 Mississippi State squad. The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET and features a total over/under of 61.5 points. While Tennessee enters the game off a solid 28-18 victory over Kentucky, Mississippi State is coming off a dominant 45-20 win against UMass. With Tennessee’s offense firing on all cylinders and Mississippi State continuing to search for consistency, the Vols look poised to extend their winning streak.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi 2025

Tennessee’s offense is averaging an impressive 38.1 points per game, ranked 19th in the nation, while their defense is a formidable 5th, allowing just 12.4 points per game. Mississippi State, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, giving up an average of 34.6 points per game, ranked 125th in the nation. Despite some strong individual performances on the Bulldogs’ side, including wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. and running back Davon Booth, Mississippi State will need a monumental effort to keep pace with Tennessee. With a 97.4% chance to win according to the odds, Tennessee is favored to win in dominant fashion, but Mississippi State will look to cover the spread and show they can compete.

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Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Game Information & Odds

Event Description
Date & Time Saturday, November 9, 2025, 7 p.m. ET
Location Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
TV ESPN
Spread Tennessee -25.5 (-111)
Moneyline Tennessee -3704, Mississippi State +1354
Over/Under 61.5

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Prediction

Prediction Aspect Description
Pick Against the Spread Mississippi State (+25.5)
Pick Over/Under Under (61.5)
Score Prediction Tennessee 40, Mississippi State 15

State Betting Insights

Insight Description
Implied Score Tennessee 44, Mississippi State 18
Tennessee’s Chance to Win 97.4%
Mississippi State’s Chance 6.9%
Tennessee’s Record ATS 4-3 against the spread this season
Mississippi State’s ATS 5-4 against the spread this season

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Stats Comparison

Stat Tennessee Mississippi State
Offensive Points per Game 38.1 (Rank 19) 29.1 (Rank 49)
Defensive Points per Game 12.4 (Rank 5) 34.6 (Rank 125)
Turnovers Forced 14 (Rank 35) 11 (Rank 68)
Turnovers Allowed 11 (Rank 57) 12 (Rank 66)

Tennessee Key Players

Player Name Stats
Dylan Sampson 980 YDS / 19 TD / 122.5 YPG / 5.7 YPC
Nico Iamaleava 1,694 YDS / 9 TD / 4 INT / 193 RUSH YDS / 1 TD
Dont’e Thornton 17 REC / 401 YDS / 3 TD / 50.1 YPG
James Pearce Jr. 20 TKL / 5 TFL / 4.5 SACK
Will Brooks 32 TKL / 2.0 TFL / 3 INT / 3 PD

Mississippi State Key Players

Player Name Stats
Davon Booth 472 YDS / 3 TD / 52.4 YPG / 4.5 YPC
Kevin Coleman Jr. 57 REC / 688 YDS / 5 TD / 76.4 YPG
Michael Van Buren Jr. 1,323 YDS / 9 TD / 4 INT
Blake Shapen 974 YDS / 8 TD / 1 INT
Stone Blanton 77 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 0.5 SACK

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Key Matchups

Matchup Aspect Description
Tennessee’s Offense vs. Mississippi State’s Defense Tennessee’s high-scoring offense will test a vulnerable Mississippi State defense.
Mississippi State’s Passing Game vs. Tennessee’s Secondary Mississippi State’s quarterbacks face a tough challenge against Tennessee’s defense, ranked 5th in points allowed.
Tennessee’s Running Game vs. Mississippi State’s Front Seven Tennessee’s dynamic running back duo of Sampson and Bishop will challenge the Bulldogs’ front seven.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State How the Vols Win?

Winning Strategy Description
Exploit Mississippi State’s Defense Tennessee should continue its balanced offensive attack, exploiting Mississippi State’s weak defense.
Dominant Running Game Establishing the run early with Sampson and Bishop will allow Tennessee to control the clock and wear down Mississippi State’s defense.
Take Advantage of Turnovers With Tennessee forcing 14 turnovers on the season, they must capitalize on any mistakes by Mississippi State to secure an easy win.

How the Bulldogs Can Cover?

Covering the Spread Strategy Description
Limit Turnovers Mississippi State must protect the football and limit mistakes that could give Tennessee easy scoring opportunities.
Control the Clock By establishing a solid running game with Booth and controlling time of possession, Mississippi State can slow down Tennessee’s high-powered offense.
Exploit Tennessee’s Weaknesses Mississippi State will need to exploit any holes in Tennessee’s defense, particularly in the passing game, to keep the game competitive.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Offensive Breakdown

Offensive Aspect Tennessee Mississippi State
Passing Offense 1,694 YDS / 9 TDs / 4 INTs, with Iamaleava leading the way. 1,323 YDS / 9 TDs / 4 INTs, Van Buren Jr. is the top QB.
Rushing Offense 122.5 YPG / 5.7 YPC, with Dylan Sampson leading the charge. 52.4 YPG / 4.5 YPC, led by Davon Booth.
Scoring Efficiency 38.1 PPG (Rank 19) 29.1 PPG (Rank 49)

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Defensive Breakdown

Defensive Aspect Tennessee Mississippi State
Passing Defense 12.4 PPG allowed (Rank 5) 34.6 PPG allowed (Rank 125)
Rushing Defense 122.5 YPG allowed (Rank 19) 178.6 YPG allowed (Rank 98)
Turnover Production 14 Turnovers Forced (Rank 35) 11 Turnovers Forced (Rank 68)

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Special Teams

Special Teams Aspect Tennessee Mississippi State
Kicking Game Strong kicking game with reliable accuracy. A solid kicking unit, but some inconsistency at times.
Punt Return Dangerous punt return unit with explosive potential. Struggles in returning punts efficiently.
Kickoff Return Well-rounded unit, with solid yardage on returns. Efficient in return game but not explosive.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Coaches Impact

Coach Description
Josh Heupel (Tennessee) Heupel’s high-powered offense and solid defense have propelled Tennessee to its current position as a top contender.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi Summary

The No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers host the Mississippi State Bulldogs on November 9, 2025, with Tennessee favored by 25.5 points. Tennessee boasts a high-powered offense and a top-ranked defense, while Mississippi State struggles with defensive consistency. The Volunteers are predicted to win 40-15, with the spread and under hitting as the likely outcome. Key players for Tennessee include running back Dylan Sampson and quarterback Nico Iamaleava, while Mississippi State will rely on Davon Booth and Kevin Coleman Jr. to keep the game competitive. Tennessee’s dominant defense and balanced offense should lead them to a comfortable victory.

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