Remal Cyclone According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is expected to strengthen and make its way towards the coasts of Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal as a severe cyclonic storm by Sunday evening, as reported to news agency PTI on Thursday.
The initial pre-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal will be named Remal following the cyclone naming system in the Indian Ocean region. IMD scientist Monica Sharma informed PTI that the cyclonic system will develop into a depression over the central Bay of Bengal by Friday morning. She mentioned that it will progress into a cyclonic storm by Saturday morning and is expected to make landfall as a severe cyclonic storm in Bangladesh and the nearby West Bengal coast by Sunday evening.
Remal cyclone 2024 Informations
A weather system over the Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards, with a cyclone expected by May 25. It will head towards Bangladesh and West Bengal by May 26 as a severe cyclonic storm. The storm may have winds of 100 to 120 kmph. “It will likely move northeast and form a Depression over central Bay of Bengal by May 24 morning. Then, it will keep moving northeast and become a cyclonic storm over east central Bay of Bengal by May 25 morning,” stated the IMD. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
Sea temperatures in the south Bay of Bengal are 2–3°C warmer than usual. High temperatures help cyclones form by providing heat and moisture. The Madden Julian Oscillation, a band of clouds, is moving over the warm ocean waters. These winds trigger cyclones to start spinning. Koll mentioned that quick northward monsoon movement could stop cyclone development. Otherwise, it may become a short-lived weak cyclone or a rainy depression.
Remal cyclone Key Points 2024
- According to IMD, the cyclone is likely to reach a wind speed of 102 kilometres per hour on Sunday.
- Warned of very heavy rainfall in the coastal districts of West Bengal, north Odisha, Mizoram, Tripura and south Manipur on May 26-27 has been issued.
- Fishermen have been advised to return to the coast and not venture into the Bay of Bengal until May 27.
- Scientists say cyclonic storms are intensifying rapidly and retaining their potency for longer periods due to warmer sea surface temperatures, a result of oceans absorbing most of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions.
- The past 30 years have witnessed the highest sea surface temperatures since records began in 1880.
- According to PTI quoting senior IMD scientist DS Pai, warmer sea surface temperatures mean more moisture, which is favourable for the intensification of cyclones.
- Former secretary of the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, Madhavan Rajeevan, said a sea surface temperature of 27 degrees Celsius and above is needed for a low-pressure system to intensify into a cyclone. The sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal is around 30 degrees Celsius at present. “The Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are very warm at present, so a tropical cyclone can easily form.”
- But tropical cyclones are not only controlled by the ocean; the atmosphere also plays an important role, especially in terms of vertical wind shear — a change in wind speed and/or wind direction with altitude. “A cyclone will not intensify if the vertical wind shear is very large. It will weaken,” Rajeevan said.
- “Initially, the system will help the monsoon progress over the Bay of Bengal. Thereafter, it will detach from the monsoon circulation and pull a lot of moisture, which could result in a slight delay in the monsoon progress in that area,” Pai told PTI.
Heavy Rainfall Warning
The IMD forecasts light to moderate rainfall in most areas, with heavy to very heavy rainfall expected at isolated spots, over coastal districts of West Bengal and neighboring districts of North Odisha on 26th and 27th May. Similarly, light to moderate rainfall is expected in most areas, with heavy to very heavy rainfall likely at isolated spots over Mizoram, Tripura, and South Manipur on 26th and 27th May.
Wind Warning
The IMD forecasts squally weather with wind speeds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over central and adjacent South Bay of Bengal on May 23. By May 24, this is expected to increase to 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over the central Bay of Bengal. The conditions will extend to neighboring areas of the North Bay of Bengal, with gale-force winds of 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph starting from the morning of May 25. Subsequently, wind speeds are predicted to rise to 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over the north Bay of Bengal and 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph over the central Bay of Bengal from the morning of May 26 for the following 24 hours. On the evening of May 25, squally wind speeds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph are expected along and off the coasts of Bangladesh, West Bengal, and neighboring North Odisha. Additionally, squally wind speeds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph are likely over the Andaman Islands and North Andaman Sea on May 23 and 24.
Cyclone Remal Naming Process
The cyclone in Oman has been named ‘Remal’. Previously, cyclones were not named until after the destructive cyclones in 1970 and 1991 prompted the initiation of a naming process to aid in the rapid dissemination of information about their characteristics. Since 2004, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Regional Special Meteorological Organizations (RSMCs) have collaborated to name cyclones. Member states of the RSMC provide a list of names that are verified and forwarded to the WMO.