The 2025 holiday season is poised to witness unprecedented growth in online shopping, as consumers turn to the internet in record numbers. With forecasts predicting U.S. online sales to hit an all-time high of $240.8 billion, an 8.4% increase from last year, mobile shopping will play a pivotal role, contributing over half of all purchases. As the season kicks off, major shopping days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday are expected to set new records, fueled by early discounts, convenient payment options, and the growing influence of social media. Retailers are gearing up for a fiercely competitive season as shoppers embrace the convenience and value of online holiday shopping.
Holiday Shoppers 2025 Key Takeaways
| Key Metric |
Expected Value |
| Total U.S. Online Sales |
$240.8 billion |
| Mobile Sales |
$128.1 billion |
| Cyber Monday Sales |
$13.2 billion |
| BNPL Spending |
$18.5 billion |
| Maximum Discount (Electronics) |
30% |
Record Online Shopping Expected This Holiday Season
The 2025 holiday season is projected to set new records for online sales, with Adobe forecasting U.S. online sales to hit $240.8 billion. This represents an 8.4% increase over 2023.
U.S. Online Sales Forecast
| Year |
Online Sales ($Billion) |
% Increase YoY |
| 2023 |
222.0 |
6.0% |
| 2025 |
240.8 |
8.4% |
Mobile Shopping to Dominate
For the first time, mobile devices are expected to account for over half of online sales. Sales from mobile transactions are projected to reach $128.1 billion, growing 12.8% from last year.
Mobile vs Desktop Sales Projections
| Device |
Sales ($Billion) |
% of Total Sales |
% Increase YoY |
| Mobile |
128.1 |
53.2% |
12.8% |
| Desktop |
112.7 |
46.8% |
4.3% |
Key Shopping Days: Cyber Week Leads the Charge
The five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, known as “Cyber Week,” will be critical in driving online sales. Adobe expects $40.6 billion in online sales during this period, a 7% increase from last year.
Cyber Week Online Sales Breakdown
| Day |
Online Sales ($Billion) |
% Increase YoY |
| Thanksgiving |
6.1 |
8.7% |
| Black Friday |
10.8 |
9.9% |
| Cyber Monday |
13.2 |
6.1% |
| Other Days |
10.5 |
6.5% |
Cyber Monday: The Biggest Online Shopping Day
Cyber Monday continues to be the largest online shopping day of the season, with sales expected to hit a record $13.2 billion, a 6.1% increase over last year.
Cyber Monday Sales Growth Over the Years
| Year |
Cyber Monday Sales ($Billion) |
% Increase YoY |
| 2022 |
12.5 |
5.4% |
| 2023 |
13.2 |
6.1% |
| 2025 |
13.9 (forecast) |
6.5% |
Retailers Compete With Major Discounts
Retailers are set to offer discounts of up to 30% across various product categories, including electronics, toys, apparel, and TVs, to attract holiday shoppers.
Top Product Categories for Discounts
| Product Category |
Max Discount (%) |
| Electronics |
30% |
| Toys |
27% |
| TVs |
24% |
| Apparel |
23% |
Inflation Relief Through Online Shopping
Online retail is providing consumers some relief from inflation, with discounts and deals offering great value compared to other sectors.
Consumer Sentiment Toward Holiday Shopping (Survey Data)
| Category |
% of Consumers |
| Shopping for Discounts |
71% |
| Expecting Lower Prices than Last Year |
54% |
| Early Holiday Shopping Behavior |
65% |
Consumers Expected to “Trade Up” to Premium Goods
Despite inflation pressures, shoppers are expected to shift from low-cost items to premium goods during the 2025 holiday season, with a 19% increase in costlier purchases.
Consumer Spending Shift Toward Premium Goods
| Type of Goods |
Pre-Season Trends |
Holiday Season Trends |
% Increase |
| Low-Cost Goods |
55% |
41% |
-14% |
| Premium Goods |
25% |
44% |
+19% |
Social Media Influencers Driving Sales
Social media influencers are playing an increasingly significant role in holiday shopping, with their influence driving 10 times more conversions compared to overall social media.
Influence of Social Media on Holiday Shopping
| Metric |
Social Media Overall |
Influencers |
| Conversion Rate |
2% |
20% |
| % of Gen Z Shoppers Influenced |
30% |
37% |
| % of Total Online Revenue |
10% |
17.2% |
Growth in Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Usage
The “Buy Now, Pay Later” payment option is expected to bring in $18.5 billion in online spending, up 11.4% from last year. Cyber Monday will be the largest day for BNPL, with $933 million in sales.
BNPL Sales Growth by Age Group
| Age Group |
% of Shoppers Using BNPL |
% Increase YoY |
| Millennials |
39% |
5% |
| Gen Z |
38% |
6% |
| Gen X |
22% |
3% |
AI Usage on the Rise in Holiday Shopping
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming a key tool for holiday shoppers, with 2 in 5 planning to use AI to find deals. Generative AI, in particular, is being utilized by 20% of shoppers.
AI Usage in Holiday Shopping
| Type of AI Usage |
% of Shoppers |
| General AI for Shopping |
40% |
| Generative AI for Deals |
20% |
Conclusion
The 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be a record-breaking one, with online sales, particularly through mobile devices, expected to soar. Retailers will rely on aggressive discounts, social media influencers, and innovative payment options like BNPL to attract shoppers.
